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Tom Slear’s (USA Swimming’s) Abuse of of Statistics

By the way, anyone at USA swimming ( 8 lies about fast swimmers) want to bet me that a 10yo girl on my son’s team won’t make it to the trials?. you see, it is a myth, according to Tom Slear….Splash Magazine correspondent, that being fast at 10 has no correlation to being fast as an 18yo.   I’ll provide the name of the girl to any one who believes the article posted at USA swimming.  I’ll bet she will make it to the trials, which by most definitions is fast.  She’ll do it at 12, and she’ll do it at 16.  Let’s see how brave those who believe in the 8 lies will hold to their convictions, that its a myth that being fast at 10 has no correlation to being fast at 18.    Yeah, I don’t  think anyone at USA swimming will take me up on this bet.  Put your money where your mouth is, chumps…I have $1000 to bet you….and I am taking most of the risk with this, because the threat of injury and health is always a real risk to any athlete.

Tom Slear, “special correspondent” to Splash Magazine writes:

” A study by USA Swimming using the All-Time Top 100 swims in each age group through 1996 found that only 10 percent of the Top 100 10-and-Unders maintained their status through age 18. Only half of the swimmers among the Top 100 in the 17-18 age group had made any top-100 list when they were younger.”

My response…people at USA swimming are utterly incompetent when it comes to looking at statistics….they should stick to swimming.

Would it be statistically significant to say “A study of #1 swimmer in each event at 10 years of age found that only 0% maintained that #1 status through age 18″.  Of course, this kind of statistic would be even more meaningless.

How about “A study using the All-Time Top 10 swims in each age group through 1996 found that only 10 percent of the Top 10 10-and-Unders maintained their status through age 18. Only 10% of the swimmers among the Top 10 in the 17-18 age group had made any top-10 list when they were younger.”

This is again meaningless.

Do you get my point?

This is not the way of looking at this statistic.  The question is, What percentage of the top 10 NCAA swim school swimmers (ages 18-22) in their event, were elite (AA or better) at 10 in their event.  What percentage were AAA or better?  How about AAAA or better.  That is a meaningful way of looking at whether or not a fast 10yo will be fast at 18.

Unless Tom Splear wants to argue that swimming AA times at 10 is not “fast”…..Anyone can fall out of the TOP 100 in swimming….health, family, injury, economics, coaching, and a myriad of other reasons……since we are dealing with fractions of a second at 18 years of age, and a utterly small population of swimmers….that if you are not in the top 100 at 18, you are somehow not fast…..that the statistic these clowns produce are almost meaningless.

The real question is, of those in the elite class (top 1% of NCAA swimmers), were there any average Joes…..B standard swimmers.  And I’m not talking B swimmers new to the sport either at 10.  I mean B swimmers like MOST out there who have been swimming for a couple seasons…..they need to have gotten their feet wet….so to speak…..did any of those somehow magically break through between 10 and 18 to become the top 100?

“”Those winning races at 10 probably won’t be winning races when they are 20,” says John Leonard, the executive director of the American Swimming Coaches Association. “This is one of those things that is obvious to coaches but is a mystery to parents.”.

Oh, really Sherlock?….so you mean to say all those B swimmers are going to overcome the elite AA and above swimmers at 18?….er, John Leonard?    Or is it because those winning races at 10 had some kind of life event that prevented them from developing as a swimmer at 18.  Or…..I guess you mean to say that there is really one gold medalist at the Olympics, and everyone else isn’t “fast”.  Again, there is no significance to these kinds of statistics….there is always only one gold medalist, and many factors and luck play into that person being there and swimming his best time on a given day.

So, this is just a load of cr&p.   How about you just peruse any top swim school: Stanford, Berkley, Florida, Texas, and look at their swimmers time at 10 years of age. Their elite status at the NCAA level followed them from age 10.  Each athlete may not win every race as the level of competition gets stiff, but they through their history won more than their fair share.

You can’t extrapolate from 10 to 18 because of life events (illness, injury, economics and a myriad of other reasons).  But you can extrapolate from 18 back to 10 to see if your “8 myths of swimming” is even remotely true.  I doubt that most  are not myths at all….USA swimming is painting some kind of politically correct narrative.  Most elite NCAA swimmers were very FAST at 10…..I am defining an AA standard as one who is very FAST at 10….and  those at a top 10 swim school in the NCAAs as extremely fast at 18.    As I have said you have to start at 18, and look back to when they were 10, to see whether or not the 8 myths of swimming is even remotely a myth.

So the republicans won the senate…..

and control the house and senate.  Big deal.

We replaced corrupt Team D with corrupt Team R.

The Republicans won’t repeal one cr*p piece of legislation crammed down the American people’s throats….i.e. the ACA.

In 2 years when this new majority will be up for election, they’ll be voted out of office.

Then once again corrupt Team D will be in charge.

Political Correctness Part 1

My now 10yo son joined a new swim team.  A young  10yo female also joined this same swim team (moved from California), and I am going to begin  this post about political correctness with an anecdote about these two swimmers.   The anecdote I am about to tell deals with the dangers of political correctness which runs amuck throughout the culture.  Political correctness liberates falsity, and imprisons truth.  It is political correctness which is enshrined by the culture as the greatest paragon of virtue.  I suspect political correctness motivates the authors of the many USA’s swimming BS articles on their website.

As I have stated on another thread, my son is a decent swimmer with BB and B times.  He is no superstar, and I suspect will never be able to reach NCAA caliber kind of swimming (I believe the official statistics is that he has only a 1/14 chance at swimming in the NCAAs).  I have no worries about this…12 other swimmers along with my son won’t make to the NCAAs for every swimmer in the NCAAs.  I love watching him race, and look forward to cheering for him at every meet to do the best he can do….which I think overall is pretty good….I am a realist…his performance isn’t in the top 10% to say the least.

I have rarely been around any swimmers with better than A times, which touches upon elite….until recently.   The 10yo girl who joined my son’s team is better than elite…she is ultra-elite.  In fact, she is a AAAA quality swimmer, and yes, you can tell a big difference comparing her swimming to my son’s.  My son swims 35 sec 50 yard freestyles.  She swims under 27 seconds.  My son’s best stroke, the breast is about 47 seconds for 50 yards.  She can do it in 35 seconds.

I knew nothing about her when she arrived at her first practice.  But I watched with great interest how effortlessly she glided through the water.  Her great form, and smoothness was self evident.  As she streamlined off the wall, she would often surface way beyond the 10m flags.  I knew I was watching 10yo greatness….that she was something special.  I asked her  parents how old she is….and found she is about 5-6 months older than my son.  I was amazed.  She has swim times that would make most 14 yo’s proud.  She is really an Olympic possibility…2 years for her first trials, and 6 years for her second.  I hope she stays on the team for the next 2 years, because I want to see her develop for the trials. I’ve become a fan.  I joked with her parents I may have to ask for an autograph sooner than later.  She is easily in the top 10 yos of this nation and it doesn’t matter what stroke…she has AAAA times in all of them.

In her first meet for her new swim team in her new state, she set swim meet records and AAAA times for every event she swam (8 in all).

Anyhow, as I was leaving that first practice…I looked at the coach, and said, “Well, you got something special there”.

He looked me back into the eye, and said, “They are all special”.

THUD!

It harkens back to a animation movie, the Incredibles.  Dash’s Mom who won’t let the superhuman Dash go out for sports.

The  dialogue between Dash and his Mom:

Dash: ….. if you’d let me go out for sports.

Helen: Honey, you know why we can’t do that.

Dash: But I promise I’ll slow up. I’ll only be the best by a tiny bit.

Helen: Dashiell Robert Parr, you are an incredibly competitive boy, and a bit of a show-off. The last thing you need is temptation.

Dash: You always say ‘Do your best’, but you don’t really mean it. Why can’t I do the best that I can do?

Helen: Right now, honey, the world just wants us to fit in, and to fit in, we gotta be like everyone else.

Dash: But Dad always said our powers were nothing to be ashamed of, our powers made us special.

Helen: Everyone’s special, Dash.

Dash: [muttering] Which is another way of saying no one is.

THUD!

Dash is right.  The word special per Webster means:  “better, greater, or otherwise different from what is usual”

Between my son’s swim coach and Dash’s mother, Helen, truth is sacrificed on the alter of poltical correctness.

Yes everyone is special because everyone is different.  But that was obviously not the context of the word “special” I was using when speaking to my son’s swim coach about this young 10yo girl.

The special I was referring to is “better, or greather than from what is usual’.  The coach knows it, but rather than glorifying, and celebrating this  truth, and taking great joy in the future of the prospects of this young girl, he crushed the word special and emptied it of value,  He elevated average to be on the level of greatness….you can have no winners and no losers with Political Correctness.  Having been brainwashed by the PC culture, he equivocated the word “special” , and made the heavenly, mundane.

What does it matter?  Its only age group swimming.  There should be no winners or losers.  Hell, I have no idea why they have timers?!?.

Shame on any one of you who think this.

 

 

End of Part 1.

Mike Coffman 6th District Colorado, Screw You!

Another republican idiot representing Colorado.   Why don’t we vote these bastards out?

Let me see.  The US goes into Iraq thinking they know better.  They destroy the country, murder hundreds of thousands of innocents, displace the Christian population living there, remove the regime that actually kept terrorism and al Qaeda at bay, and altered the balance of power to the Shia.  And when that didn’t work out so well, Mike Coffman, Republican, Colorado 6th district, wants to meddle some more?

Screw You Mike Coffman.

Is there any reason why Republicans are better than Democrats?  They are both the filth of the earth.

This clown sure has a lot of faith in the US government.  This is a classic definition of  RINO….if republicans should stand for anything is a skeptical view meddling in foreign affairs as George Washington and Thomas Jefferson suggested, long ago.

Contrast Mike Coffman:

Our presence before a change in leadership will merely send a message to the Malaki government that we will support them despite what they have done and continue to do to destroy the country by oppressing the Sunni Arab population.”

Mike Coffman, Republican Idiot, 6th Dist, Colorado

vs our founding fathers:

“‘Tis our true policy to steer clear of permanent Alliances, with any portion of the foreign world.”

George Washington, Farewell Address, September 19, 1796

 

“I am for free commerce with all nations, political connection with none, and little or no diplomatic establishment. And I am not for linking ourselves by new treaties with the quarrels of Europe, entering that field of slaughter to preserve their balance, or joining in the confederacy of Kings to war against the principles of liberty.”

Thomas Jefferson to Elbridge Gerry, 1799. ME 10:77

 

Book Review: The Cult of Common Core

I wrote the following review on Amazon.com.  I gave the book a 4 star review.  It documents yet another reason to reject government education.

There is nothing in this book that surprised me, but I want those who think the government is benign and those who know nothing of common core to read this. The American education system is modeled after the Prussian system of education who according to Wikipedia was established “to instill social obedience in the citizens through indoctrination”, and “loyalty to the Crown and to train young men for the military and the bureaucracy.” Today, the progressive goals are no different and through the government school system this is a fait accompli, but to cement this fact for the foreseeable future, we have the Cult of Common Core.

What this book reveals is the surreptitious means by which Progressives in the appearance of angels of light, or wolves in sheep’s clothing, are really after the mind and soul of our children. Their goal, if successful, will mean a complete take over society inculcating and breeding sheeple who cannot think for themselves, but will be socially obedient to the intelligentsia who just know better. These children, after all, are their future voters. What better way to indoctrinate than through compulsory education in which they remove children from the influence of the home and place them in 30-40 hour per week indoctrination camps run by government bureaucrats who write the curriculum. Ever wonder why the progressive intelligentsia is hostile to home-schoolers?

The opportunity: “Never let a crisis go to waste”. So Progressives such as the Obama/Chicago apparatchik (viz. Arne Duncan) dangled “Stimulus moneys” for “shovel ready jobs” before states, not to preserve education, but rather to adopt Common Core standards, and establish data mining systems so Big Brother may watch your child and teacher to make sure they do not stray too far from the fold (standards of indoctrination)….after all, they know better.

Enter stage right: Big money Bill Gates. You wouldn’t be complete without fascism: the collaboration of Big Business with Big Brother…. capitalism provides the financial means. One of the classic lines of the book: “The ultimate irony is that Bill Gates dropped out of college so that he could put his originality and his individual talent to work to make his fortune, yet he wants the rest of us to make sure our kids are “college and career ready” by using a one-size-fits-all, homogenized, dumb-downed program that is centrally controlled”. Boy, ain’t that the truth. And the book further notes how Gates’ kids are private schooled as additional irony. I would note too, that silver-spoon Bill Gates didn’t grow up in the public education system of Seattle, either (I did, however). I am quite familiar with the high-brow superiority complex Lakeside Highschool graduates have. I actually witnessed one of their graduation ceremonies in 1983. In a nutshell, we have is the elite class ruling over the homogenized sheeple.

Enter stage left– More Big money: Trust fund baby and Weather Underground Terrorist Bill Ayers. Like many progressives, this guy works clandestinely, behind the scenes because so much of what he stands for has been repudiated. This guy helped establish the Chicago Annenburg Challenge, then headed up by Senator Obama (selected by Ayers, of course, who, according to Obama, was just some dude who lived around the block)….funded by Walter Annenburg. Obama led the CAC from 1995 to 1999 and remained on the board until 2001. The foundation funneled more than $100 million into community organizations and radical education activists. Fundamentally, the Chicago Appartachik (google Arne Duncan) runs the department of education today. So public education is in good hands.

So I didn’t give this book 5 stars. It’s pretty close to a five star book. There are lots of foot notes to read up on in the back of the book. Do not get me wrong, I would prefer footnotes throughout the text on which to refer, which there are none. For this I take away one star. However, it doesn’t take much while reading this to google facts stated, for confirmation.

More proof government schools are dangerous

Anyone who knocks home-schooling needs to reconcile their government school paradigm with this.

Another reason to NOT vote republican (or democrat)

We all know the democrats are economically illiterate, corrupt,  and full of cheats, thieves and liars who exist to create division between classes of people in order to exploit them for their vote.  What is more interesting is how there is little difference between republicans and democrats.  Republicans are warmongering versions of economically illiterate, corrupt cheats and thieves on the left.

This one takes the cake.  The republican standard-bearer, the grand parent of Obamacare,  Willard Romney, supports raising the minimum wage.

His reasoning is laughable:  ““Because frankly, our party is all about more jobs and better pay.”

What an economically illiterate buffoon…..  and here I thought it was really bad when Former republican standard-bearer John McCain attacked Rand Paul for his filibuster against drones being used against American citizens without due process.  I despise the republican party as much if not more than the democrats.

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